Charlton 3-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 42%, yet in-form Portsmouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 17 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 3D 2L at The Valley — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Portsmouth are 0.90 PPG clear of Charlton in recent League One fixtures (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Portsmouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Portsmouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.55 xG and Portsmouth 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.245 / defence 0.926 | Portsmouth attack 1.175 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.266. Data: 59 Charlton games / 57 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 34%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Portsmouth 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portsmouth (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Portsmouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Charlton 1.55 / Portsmouth 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.245 / def 0.926 | Portsmouth attack 1.175 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Charlton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Portsmouth xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Charlton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 17 October 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Charlton 3 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Charlton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Portsmouth part of?
Charlton vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 42% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charlton and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 1 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.25x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.18x) against Charlton's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.08
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.93
1.38
Portsmouth xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Charlton and 1.38 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 14D 23L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth's form line: 26W 17D 14L from 57 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Charlton against 1.67 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 20W 14D 23L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 26W 17D 14L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Portsmouth away?
Charlton's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.61 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Charlton or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Charlton
3
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Portsmouth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 46%, Portsmouth 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charlton) and 39% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Portsmouth in 39%; Portsmouth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Charlton's recent matches and 43% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charlton's recent games and 39% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charlton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Portsmouth 3-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.55 xG and Portsmouth 1.38 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portsmouth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Portsmouth attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 42% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 34%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Portsmouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.30 PPG, Portsmouth 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.