Charlton 2-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Charlton take on Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games (0.62 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 1W 1D 2L at The Valley — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Portsmouth (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 League One outings this term — 1.38 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Portsmouth are 0.76 PPG clear of Charlton in recent League One fixtures (1.38 vs 0.62). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Charlton have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Portsmouth in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 62% versus Portsmouth 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Charlton 50% | Portsmouth 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.75 xG and Portsmouth 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.809 / defence 1.106 | Portsmouth attack 0.556 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.208. Data: 8 Charlton games / 8 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 32% | Draw 37% | Portsmouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Portsmouth 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Portsmouth's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 25% | Portsmouth 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 32% | Draw 37% | Portsmouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Charlton 0.75 / Portsmouth 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.809 / def 1.106 | Portsmouth attack 0.556 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Portsmouth xG
28%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Charlton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Charlton 2 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is Charlton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Portsmouth part of?
Charlton vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 32% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Charlton and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.81x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.56x) against Charlton's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
37%
2.72
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.50
0.74
Portsmouth xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.60
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.4 | 16.6 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Charlton and 0.74 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Charlton have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 2D 5L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth's form line: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 0.88 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Portsmouth in 25%.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Portsmouth away?
Charlton's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.00 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Charlton or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Charlton
3
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Portsmouth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Portsmouth tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Charlton) and 0% (Portsmouth) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Charlton and 0% for Portsmouth.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Portsmouth in 50%; Charlton have failed to score in 50% of games; Portsmouth in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Charlton's recent matches and 0% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Charlton's recent games and 0% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 9, as Charlton and Portsmouth drew 2-2 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.75 xG and Portsmouth 0.74 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portsmouth outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against Portsmouth attack 0.56 / defence 0.92, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 32% | Draw 37% | Portsmouth 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Portsmouth 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.