Charlton 1-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Peterborough at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Peterborough at The Valley in League One (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Charlton — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Charlton have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Charlton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Peterborough's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Charlton's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Charlton have won 0, Peterborough 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Charlton 0–1 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Peterborough 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 55% | Peterborough 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.147 / defence 1.232 | Peterborough attack 1.291 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.144. Peterborough have an above-average attack rating of 1.291, which lifts their away xG to 1.82. Charlton's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 71 games and Peterborough's last 71.
Result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 45%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.23 | Draw 4.22 | Peterborough 2.20. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 80% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 28 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Charlton 1.47 / Peterborough 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.147 / def 1.232 | Peterborough attack 1.291 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Peterborough xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Peterborough kick off?
Charlton vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Charlton 1 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Charlton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Peterborough part of?
Charlton vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 31% chance of winning, Peterborough a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Charlton and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charlton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.15) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 71 games and Peterborough's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
31%
3.23
24%
4.22
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.29
1.82
Peterborough xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Charlton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Charlton and 1.82 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 23D 25L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 37W 12D 22L from 71 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 36 home games (15W 10D 11L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 17W 4D 15L from their last 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Peterborough in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
Charlton (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Charlton vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 23D 25L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 37W 12D 22L in their last 71 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Peterborough away?
Charlton's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.53 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Charlton or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Peterborough in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 22 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Charlton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 1, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2025: Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 72%, Peterborough 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Charlton) and 56% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Peterborough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Charlton's games and 56% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Charlton's matches and 56% of Peterborough's.
Do Charlton and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Charlton's recent matches and 69% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Peterborough attack 1.29 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 31% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 45%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 28
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →