Charlton 2-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 6 as Charlton welcome Fleetwood Town to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fleetwood Town stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.00 PPG versus Fleetwood Town's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Charlton have won 2, Fleetwood Town 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Fleetwood Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 61% versus Fleetwood Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 51% | Fleetwood Town 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.44 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.084 / defence 1.274 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.868 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.097. Data: 51 Charlton games / 51 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Fleetwood Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Fleetwood Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 42% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Charlton 1.44 / Fleetwood Town 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.084 / def 1.274 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.868 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Charlton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fleetwood Town xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Charlton 2 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 42% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charlton and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
Record (4 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 1 | Fleetwood Town 1W.
What form are Charlton and Fleetwood Town in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.08) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.86
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
Fleetwood Town xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Charlton and 1.21 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 17W 14D 20L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fleetwood Town's form line: 14W 17D 20L from 51 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.27 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 9D 10L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.08 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 17D 20L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Charlton's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.42 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 69%, Fleetwood Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Charlton) and 42% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Charlton's games and 58% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Charlton's recent games and 42% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Fleetwood Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.44 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.08 / defence 1.27 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 42% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 32%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 51%, Fleetwood Town 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.27 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.