Burton Albion 2-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 10 as Burton Albion welcome Portsmouth to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 League One outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 League One matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.33 (Portsmouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 44% versus Portsmouth 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burton Albion 33% | Portsmouth 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.00 xG and Portsmouth 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.923 / defence 1.073 | Portsmouth attack 0.689 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.212. Data: 9 Burton Albion games / 9 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 32% | Portsmouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Portsmouth 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 80% | Portsmouth 20%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 32% | Portsmouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Burton Albion 1.00 / Portsmouth 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.923 / def 1.073 | Portsmouth attack 0.689 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Portsmouth xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kick off?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth part of?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 37% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Burton Albion and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Portsmouth's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.14
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.89
0.90
Portsmouth xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.90 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.33 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.00 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Portsmouth away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.60 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
5
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Portsmouth have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Portsmouth tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 80%, Portsmouth 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Burton Albion and 20% for Portsmouth.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 40%; Portsmouth in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 20% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burton Albion's recent games and 20% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Portsmouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Portsmouth 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.00 xG and Portsmouth 0.90 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Portsmouth attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 37% | Draw 32% | Portsmouth 31%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 33%, Portsmouth 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Portsmouth's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.33 PPG, Portsmouth 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.