Burton Albion 0-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 48%, yet in-form Port Vale provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burton Albion vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 5 as Burton Albion welcome Port Vale to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Port Vale have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Port Vale have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port Vale — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus Port Vale 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 50% | Port Vale 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.47 xG and Port Vale 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.721 / defence 1.294 | Port Vale attack 0.759 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.013. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Burton Albion games / 4 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 48% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 25%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Port Vale 4.00. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port Vale (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Port Vale 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 48% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Burton Albion 1.47 / Port Vale 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.721 / def 1.294 | Port Vale attack 0.759 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Port Vale xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Port Vale kick off?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Burton Albion vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Port Vale part of?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 48% chance of winning, Port Vale a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burton Albion and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Port Vale (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.69
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.46
0.99
Port Vale xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.99 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 14W 12D 24L from 50 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 14L across 50 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 10W 6D 9L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.50 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 25W 11D 14L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.44 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Port Vale in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, Port Vale 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Burton Albion) and 52% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Burton Albion's games and 60% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Burton Albion's recent games and 52% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Port Vale tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.47 xG and Port Vale 0.99 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.72 / defence 1.29 against Port Vale attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 48% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 25%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, Port Vale 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.