Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion at Pirelli Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mansfield Town (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for Mansfield Town and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 53% versus Mansfield Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 53% | Mansfield Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 2.12 xG and Mansfield Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.156 / defence 0.971 | Mansfield Town attack 0.811 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Data: 50 Burton Albion games / 50 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 62% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Mansfield Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Burton Albion (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 70% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 62% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Burton Albion 2.12 / Mansfield Town 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.156 / def 0.971 | Mansfield Town attack 0.811 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Mansfield Town xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
Where is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 62% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burton Albion and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
Record (4 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 3 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (1.16) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.81x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.51
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
3.12
1.00
Mansfield Town xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.32
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
52.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.00 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 17D 19L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.39 PPG from 51 outings (18W 17D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.39 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burton Albion's home form reads 10W 7D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.37 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 15W 17D 19L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 18W 17D 16L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Mansfield Town away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.42 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Mansfield Town 0-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Mansfield Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 46%, Mansfield Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 31%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 35% of games; Mansfield Town in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 50% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.