Burton Albion 0-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fleetwood Town's overall League One record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fleetwood Town arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 3–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 52% versus Fleetwood Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Fleetwood Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.06 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.776 / defence 1.300 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.012 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.234. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Burton Albion games / 56 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 25% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 50%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Fleetwood Town 2.00. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 30% | Fleetwood Town 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 25% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Burton Albion 1.06 / Fleetwood Town 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.776 / def 1.300 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.012 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Fleetwood Town xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 25% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.78) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (1.01x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
25%
4.03
25%
4.05
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.69
1.62
Fleetwood Town xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
20.47
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.62 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 12D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 0.93 PPG from 56 outings (10W 22D 24L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.93 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (4W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 64%.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 15W 12D 29L in their last 56 games (1.02 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 10W 22D 24L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.33 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fleetwood Town won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
1
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Fleetwood Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 56% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 37% of games; Fleetwood Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Burton Albion's games and 67% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 56% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fleetwood Town edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.06 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.62 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 25% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 50%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Fleetwood Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.02 PPG, Fleetwood Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.