Bradford 2-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Stevenage travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Valley Parade, Bradford have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stevenage — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bradford are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bradford have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Stevenage have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bradford and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 50% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 43% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.01 xG and Stevenage 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.853 / defence 0.704 | Stevenage attack 0.923 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.370. Bradford's defence rating of 0.704 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Bradford games / 54 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 36% | Draw 35% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Stevenage 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 36% | Draw 35% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Bradford 1.01 / Stevenage 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.853 / def 0.704 | Stevenage attack 0.923 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Bradford (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Stevenage xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stevenage kick off?
Bradford vs Stevenage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Bradford 2 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Bradford vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Stevenage part of?
Bradford vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 36% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bradford and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
Record (6 meetings): Bradford 4W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in?
Bradford (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
36%
2.80
35%
2.86
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.90
0.89
Stevenage xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bradford and 0.89 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 26W 13D 17L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 24W 15D 17L from 56 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.62 PPG, Stevenage on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bradford have posted 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (16W 6D 5L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.09 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 24W 15D 17L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Stevenage away?
Bradford's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.00 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bradford or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Stevenage runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
From 7 meetings on record, Bradford have won 5, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Bradford 2-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stevenage?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 44%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bradford) and 41% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Stevenage in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bradford's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bradford's recent games and 41% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stevenage 2-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.01 xG and Stevenage 0.89 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.85 / defence 0.70 against Stevenage attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 36% | Draw 35% | Stevenage 29%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 43%, Stevenage 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.62 PPG, Stevenage 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.