Swansea 2-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Portsmouth at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swansea stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Swansea's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Portsmouth have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.10 PPG versus Portsmouth's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 51% versus Portsmouth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 49% | Portsmouth 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Swansea surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Portsmouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.76 xG and Portsmouth 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.954 / defence 1.048 | Portsmouth attack 0.884 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.030. Portsmouth's defence rating of 1.388 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Data: built from Swansea's last 63 games and Portsmouth's last 15.
Result probabilities: Swansea 55% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 19%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.81 | Draw 3.92 | Portsmouth 5.21. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Swansea 30% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 18 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 55% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Swansea 1.76 / Portsmouth 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.954 / def 1.048 | Portsmouth attack 0.884 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Swansea (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Portsmouth xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Portsmouth kick off?
Swansea vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Swansea 2 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is Swansea vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Portsmouth part of?
Swansea vs Portsmouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 55% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swansea and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swansea vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.95x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 63 games and Portsmouth's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.92
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.72
0.95
Portsmouth xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Swansea and 0.95 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Portsmouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 21W 15D 25L from 61 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Portsmouth, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 12L across 61 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portsmouth by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 11W 7D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portsmouth's away record stands at 13W 11D 6L across their last 30 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.54 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
Swansea (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Swansea vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 30W 19D 12L in their last 61 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.33 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Swansea or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jan 2025, when Portsmouth won Portsmouth 4-0 Swansea.
Swansea's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Portsmouth?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 2, Portsmouth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Swansea and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Portsmouth 3-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 47%, Portsmouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Swansea) and 47% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Portsmouth in 43%; Swansea have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Portsmouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Swansea's recent matches and 50% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Swansea's recent games and 47% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Swansea's recent matches and 57% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Swansea and Portsmouth drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.76 xG and Portsmouth 0.95 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Portsmouth attack 0.88 / defence 1.39, drawn from 63/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 55% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 19%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 49%, Portsmouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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