Swansea 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Hull City meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Swansea against 0.80 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hull City — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 60% versus Hull City 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 60% | Hull City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.93 xG and Hull City 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.793 / defence 1.286 | Hull City attack 0.998 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.320. Swansea's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Swansea games / 5 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 18% | Draw 28% | Hull City 53%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Hull City 1.89. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 60% | Hull City 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 18% | Draw 28% | Hull City 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Swansea 0.93 / Hull City 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.793 / def 1.286 | Hull City attack 0.998 / def 1.191 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Hull City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Hull City kick off?
Swansea vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Swansea 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Swansea vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Hull City part of?
Swansea vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 18% chance of winning, Hull City a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Swansea and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Hull City in?
Swansea (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.79) and Hull City's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.00x) against Swansea's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
18%
5.44
28%
3.54
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.62
1.69
Hull City xG
5.44
18%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
29.57
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Swansea and 1.69 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Swansea have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Swansea against 0.80 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hull City in 20%.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Hull City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Hull City have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Swansea or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Swansea
4
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 3, Hull City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 60%, Hull City 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swansea) and 40% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hull City in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Swansea's recent matches and 20% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Swansea's recent games and 40% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Hull City tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hull City in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Swansea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Swansea and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.93 xG and Hull City 1.69 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Swansea fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Hull City attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 18% | Draw 28% | Hull City 53%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 60%, Hull City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hull City's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 0.80 PPG, Hull City 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swansea managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.