Sunderland 0-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus West Brom in Championship (matchday 17). Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Sunderland. A 0.70 PPG lead over West Brom (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sunderland edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Sunderland 1–0 West Brom — a Sunderland win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 44% versus West Brom 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 45% | West Brom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.45 xG and West Brom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.179 / defence 0.868 | West Brom attack 1.148 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.044. Data: built from Sunderland's last 62 games and West Brom's last 62.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 29% | West Brom 26%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.22 | Draw 3.43 | West Brom 3.87. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 20% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 29% | West Brom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Sunderland 1.45 / West Brom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.179 / def 0.868 | West Brom attack 1.148 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.04
West Brom xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs West Brom FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs West Brom kick off?
Sunderland vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs West Brom?
Sunderland 0 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Sunderland vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs West Brom part of?
Sunderland vs West Brom is a Championship fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 45% chance of winning, West Brom a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sunderland and West Brom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sunderland vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.18) and West Brom's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (1.15x) against Sunderland's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 62 games and West Brom's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.43
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.49
1.04
West Brom xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs West Brom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sunderland and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.04 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 25W 13D 24L from 62 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 15L across 62 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Sunderland against 1.60 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 15W 4D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.37 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; West Brom in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
West Brom
Blended
Sunderland (Home) vs West Brom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Sunderland vs West Brom Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and West Brom in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 25W 13D 24L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while West Brom have gone 26W 21D 15L in their last 62 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or West Brom away?
Sunderland's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.63 PPG; West Brom away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sunderland or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, West Brom in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs West Brom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and West Brom?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 4, West Brom have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sunderland and West Brom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: West Brom 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and West Brom?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 40%, West Brom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sunderland) and 60% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs West Brom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and West Brom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sunderland's recent matches and 60% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and West Brom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sunderland's matches and 60% of West Brom's.
Do Sunderland and West Brom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sunderland's recent matches and 73% of West Brom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sunderland's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland and West Brom finished level at 0-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.45 xG and West Brom 1.04 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.4 short of their projected output. West Brom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against West Brom attack 1.15 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 45% | Draw 29% | West Brom 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 45%, West Brom 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Brom's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.42 PPG, West Brom 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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