Stoke City 3-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bet365 Stadium plays host to Stoke City versus Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stoke City (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Bet365 Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Charlton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Stoke City, 1.50 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Stoke City — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Charlton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 37% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.31 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 1.113 / defence 0.801 | Charlton attack 0.775 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.215. Data: 62 Stoke City games / 16 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 50% | Draw 29% | Charlton 21%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 4.76. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 40% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 50% | Draw 29% | Charlton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Stoke City 1.31 / Charlton 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 1.113 / def 0.801 | Charlton attack 0.775 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Charlton xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Charlton kick off?
Stoke City vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 November 2025 at Bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Charlton?
Stoke City 3 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Stoke City vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Charlton part of?
Stoke City vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 50% chance of winning, Charlton a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stoke City and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stoke City and Charlton in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stoke City's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.78x) against Stoke City's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 62/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.48
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.07
0.76
Charlton xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.76 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stoke City's recent record stands at 20W 18D 24L from 62 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 16L across 62 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stoke City heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 12W 10D 8L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stoke City are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.32 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Charlton in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 20W 18D 24L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while Charlton have gone 30W 16D 16L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Charlton away?
Stoke City's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.53 PPG; Charlton away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charlton in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stoke City
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Stoke City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 50%, Charlton 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Stoke City) and 47% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charlton in 40%; Stoke City have failed to score in 30% of games; Charlton in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stoke City's recent matches and 37% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Stoke City's recent games and 47% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Charlton tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Charlton in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stoke City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Charlton 3-0 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.31 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 1.11 / defence 0.80 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 50% | Draw 29% | Charlton 21%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 37%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Stoke City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.