Sheffield Wednesday 0-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday host Derby at Hillsborough in Championship, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sheffield Wednesday — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 0W 2D 8L at Hillsborough — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 1.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Sheffield Wednesday hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Derby, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2025, ended 4–2 with Sheffield Wednesday winning.
The historical record gives Sheffield Wednesday a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Wednesday trading profile (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby trading profile (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 54% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 54% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 0.89 xG and Derby 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.658 / defence 1.537 | Derby attack 1.121 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.209. Sheffield Wednesday's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Sheffield Wednesday games / 66 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 15% | Draw 21% | Derby 64%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Derby 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Derby (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sheffield Wednesday dominate the H2H record, yet Derby are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 40% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Monday 15 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 15% | Draw 21% | Derby 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 0.89 / Derby 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.658 / def 1.537 | Derby attack 1.121 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Derby (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Derby xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 15 December 2025 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Sheffield Wednesday 0 - 3 Derby.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 15% chance of winning, Derby a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Derby in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Derby (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (0.66) and Derby's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
15%
6.76
21%
4.81
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.98
2.08
Derby xG
6.76
15%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
12%
8.02
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
54.23
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 2.08 for Derby, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 16W 19D 30L from 65 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 28L across 65 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Wednesday on 1.03 PPG, Derby on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 5W 10D 16L from 31 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Derby in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 16W 19D 30L in their last 65 games (1.03 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 17D 28L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 0.81 PPG; Derby away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2025, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Derby 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Derby?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 55%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 39% of games; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sheffield Wednesday's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Derby tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-3 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 0.89 xG and Derby 2.08 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 2.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.66 / defence 1.54 against Derby attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 15% | Draw 21% | Derby 64%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 54%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.03 PPG, Derby 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.