Sheffield Utd 1-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Utd vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Derby travel to Bramall Lane to take on Sheffield Utd. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Utd stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bramall Lane, Sheffield Utd have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sheffield Utd 0.90 PPG, Derby 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sheffield Utd, 1 for Derby and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Sheffield Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Utd in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Derby in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 36% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sheffield Utd 40% | Derby 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.01 xG and Derby 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.819 / defence 1.082 | Derby attack 0.920 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.123. Data: 58 Sheffield Utd games / 58 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sheffield Utd dominate the H2H record, yet Derby are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Utd 40% | Derby 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.01 / Derby 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.819 / def 1.082 | Derby attack 0.920 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Derby xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Derby kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 3 Derby.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Derby part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 32% chance of winning, Derby a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): Sheffield Utd 3W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Derby in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Derby (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 0.82x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Sheffield Utd's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.37
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
2.13
1.12
Derby xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.12 for Derby, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Utd's recent record stands at 32W 6D 20L from 58 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 26L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Utd by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Utd have managed 16W 3D 9L from 28 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 5W 8D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Derby in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 32W 6D 20L in their last 58 games (1.76 PPG), while Derby have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Derby away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.82 PPG; Derby away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Derby in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sheffield Utd's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 4, Derby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 36%, Derby 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sheffield Utd) and 46% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Derby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 61% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sheffield Utd's recent games and 46% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Utd and Derby tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Sheffield Utd 1-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.01 xG and Derby 1.12 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Derby attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 32% | Draw 30% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 40%, Derby 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.