Rotherham 1-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rotherham welcome Hull City to AESSEAL New York Stadium in Championship (matchday 32). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Rotherham — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Rotherham's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hull City — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rotherham have won 0, Hull City 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Rotherham 1–4 Hull City — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 51% versus Hull City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Hull City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.748 / defence 1.034 | Hull City attack 1.060 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.215. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from Rotherham's last 76 games and Hull City's last 76.
Result probabilities: Rotherham 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 39%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.91 | Draw 3.77 | Hull City 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rotherham 50% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Rotherham 1.23 / Hull City 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.748 / def 1.034 | Hull City attack 1.060 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hull City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rotherham vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Rotherham vs Hull City kick off?
Rotherham vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Hull City?
Rotherham 1 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Rotherham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Hull City part of?
Rotherham vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rotherham and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rotherham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rotherham's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rotherham's last 76 games and Hull City's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.77
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.56
1.33
Hull City xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rotherham vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.33 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham's recent record stands at 14W 27D 35L from 76 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 27L across 76 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hull City by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rotherham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rotherham have managed 12W 11D 14L from their last 37 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 11W 12D 14L across their last 37 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.24 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Rotherham (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rotherham
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Rotherham vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Rotherham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 14W 27D 35L in their last 76 games (0.91 PPG), while Hull City have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Hull City away?
Rotherham's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.27 PPG; Hull City away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Nov 2023, when Hull City won Hull City 4-1 Rotherham.
Rotherham's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rotherham
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Rotherham vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Hull City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rotherham have won 0, Hull City have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2024: Rotherham 1-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 62%, Hull City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rotherham) and 54% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rotherham vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rotherham and Hull City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rotherham's games and 57% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rotherham and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rotherham's recent games and 54% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Rotherham's recent matches and 65% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Rotherham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Rotherham 1-2 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Hull City attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 34% | Draw 27% | Hull City 39%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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