QPR 1-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and West Brom meet at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. QPR's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of West Brom's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, West Brom in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — QPR lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with West Brom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
West Brom — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus West Brom 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 54% | West Brom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.98 xG and West Brom 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.936 / defence 1.032 | West Brom attack 0.682 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.147. Data: 24 QPR games / 25 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 38% | Draw 34% | West Brom 28%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | West Brom 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — West Brom's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 30% | West Brom 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 38% | Draw 34% | West Brom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG QPR 0.98 / West Brom 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.936 / def 1.032 | West Brom attack 0.682 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: QPR (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.81
West Brom xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs West Brom kick off?
QPR vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs West Brom?
QPR 1 - 0 West Brom.
Where is QPR vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs West Brom part of?
QPR vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 38% chance of winning, West Brom a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both QPR and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 0 | West Brom 1W.
What form are QPR and West Brom in?
QPR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.68x) against QPR's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.97
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
QPR xG
Total xG
1.79
0.81
West Brom xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 13.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are QPR and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for QPR and 0.81 for West Brom, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, QPR have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 12W 5D 7L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 11W 8D 5L from 24 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for QPR against 1.71 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 4W 3D 5L from 12 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.21 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: West Brom in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and West Brom in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 12W 5D 7L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while West Brom have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or West Brom away?
QPR's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.75 PPG; West Brom away: 1.25 PPG.
Have QPR or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, West Brom in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
QPR
2
Draws
6
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 2, West Brom have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when West Brom 2-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
West Brom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 42%, West Brom 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for QPR and 42% for West Brom.
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; West Brom in 33%; West Brom in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of QPR's recent matches and 33% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of QPR's recent games and 42% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and West Brom tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, West Brom in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out West Brom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat West Brom 1-0 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.98 xG and West Brom 0.81 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against West Brom attack 0.68 / defence 1.04, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 38% | Draw 34% | West Brom 28%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 54%, West Brom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.71 PPG, West Brom 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.