QPR 3-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and West Brom meet at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Loftus Road this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
West Brom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, West Brom have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to QPR's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with West Brom winning.
It is worth noting that West Brom have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
West Brom — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus West Brom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 53% | West Brom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.986 / defence 1.189 | West Brom attack 0.844 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.248. Data: 64 QPR games / 64 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 40% | Draw 26% | West Brom 33%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | West Brom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | West Brom 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 40% | Draw 26% | West Brom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG QPR 1.40 / West Brom 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.986 / def 1.189 | West Brom attack 0.844 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: QPR (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.25
West Brom xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs West Brom kick off?
QPR vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs West Brom?
QPR 3 - 1 West Brom.
Where is QPR vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs West Brom part of?
QPR vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 40% chance of winning, West Brom a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both QPR and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
Record (8 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 2 | West Brom 5W.
What form are QPR and West Brom in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. West Brom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.84x) against QPR's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.79
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
QPR xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
West Brom xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are QPR and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for QPR and 1.25 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, QPR have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 18D 25L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 22W 23D 19L from 64 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for QPR against 1.39 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 6W 11D 14L from 31 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.20 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and West Brom in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while West Brom have gone 22W 23D 19L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or West Brom away?
QPR's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.29 PPG; West Brom away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
QPR
2
Draws
6
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 2, West Brom have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when West Brom 2-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for QPR, 61% for West Brom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (QPR) and 42% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: West Brom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of QPR's games and 61% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of QPR's recent games and 42% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and West Brom tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, West Brom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over West Brom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat West Brom 3-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against West Brom attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 40% | Draw 26% | West Brom 33%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 53%, West Brom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.27 PPG, West Brom 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.