QPR 1-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Cardiff travel to MATRADE Loftus Road to take on QPR. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MATRADE Loftus Road, QPR have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (QPR) versus 1.00 (Cardiff). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for QPR, 1 for Cardiff and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
QPR in-play tendencies (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 45% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 46% | Cardiff 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.09 xG and Cardiff 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.781 / defence 1.062 | Cardiff attack 0.913 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.176. QPR's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 QPR games / 71 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 37%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Cardiff 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 50% | Cardiff 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Monday 1 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG QPR 1.09 / Cardiff 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.781 / def 1.062 | Cardiff attack 0.913 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cardiff xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Cardiff kick off?
QPR vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 January 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Cardiff?
QPR 1 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is QPR vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Cardiff part of?
QPR vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 34% chance of winning, Cardiff a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both QPR and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
Record (5 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are QPR and Cardiff in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.78x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.42
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
QPR xG
Total xG
2.24
1.14
Cardiff xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for QPR and 1.14 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, QPR have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 18W 17D 36L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff's form line: 23W 14D 34L from 71 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.00 PPG, Cardiff on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 0.94 PPG from 34 outings (8W 8D 18L).
On the road, Cardiff have gone 11W 5D 18L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.03 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Cardiff in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 18W 17D 36L in their last 71 games (1.00 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 23W 14D 34L in their last 71 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Cardiff away?
Cardiff's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.94 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
QPR
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when QPR 0-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Cardiff?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 47%, Cardiff 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (QPR) and 47% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 44% of games; Cardiff in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of QPR's recent matches and 35% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of QPR's recent games and 47% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Cardiff tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out QPR 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat QPR 1-2 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.09 xG and Cardiff 1.14 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 34% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 37%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 46%, Cardiff 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.00 PPG, Cardiff 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.