Plymouth 0-2 Leeds – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Leeds at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Leeds encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Leeds meet at Home Park in Championship, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Leeds have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Leeds away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Leeds are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Leeds and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Leeds winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Leeds — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 60% versus Leeds 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 61% | Leeds 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.44 xG and Leeds 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.377 / defence 1.367 | Leeds attack 1.121 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.222. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Leeds's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Plymouth games / 32 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 30% | Draw 22% | Leeds 48%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Leeds 2.08. Leeds hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leeds as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leeds if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 80% | Leeds 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Leeds | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 30% | Draw 22% | Leeds 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Plymouth 1.44 / Leeds 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.377 / def 1.367 | Leeds attack 1.121 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Leeds (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Leeds xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Leeds kick off?
Plymouth vs Leeds kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Leeds?
Plymouth 0 - 2 Leeds.
Where is Plymouth vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Leeds part of?
Plymouth vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 30% chance of winning, Leeds a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Plymouth and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Leeds?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Leeds 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Leeds in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Leeds (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.38) and Leeds's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Leeds's attack (1.12x) against Plymouth's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
30%
3.35
22%
4.46
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.32
1.87
Leeds xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.82
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.87 for Leeds, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Plymouth come into this having played 70 games, going 35W 18D 17L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Leeds sit at 1.39 PPG from 70 outings (27W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Plymouth against 1.39 for Leeds. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Plymouth's home form reads 25W 5D 5L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Leeds have taken 1.00 points per game from 35 outings (10W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.53 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Leeds
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Leeds in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 35W 18D 17L in their last 70 games (1.76 PPG), while Leeds have gone 27W 16D 27L in their last 70 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Leeds away?
Plymouth's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.29 PPG; Leeds away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Leeds been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Leeds in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Leeds have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leeds won 3-0 on 2 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Leeds — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Plymouth
0
Draws
4
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Leeds?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Leeds have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Plymouth 1-2 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Leeds?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Leeds see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Leeds 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Plymouth and 57% for Leeds. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Leeds in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Leeds?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 51% of Leeds's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Plymouth's matches and 57% of Leeds's.
Do Plymouth and Leeds tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Leeds in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Plymouth 0-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.44 xG and Leeds 1.87 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.38 / defence 1.37 against Leeds attack 1.12 / defence 0.74, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 30% | Draw 22% | Leeds 48%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 61%, Leeds 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Leeds's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.76 PPG, Leeds 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leeds (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.