Plymouth 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plymouth welcome Hull City to Home Park in Championship (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hull City — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hull City — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Plymouth have won 0, Hull City 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Plymouth 1–1 Hull City — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hull City trading profile (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 53% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Hull City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.894 / defence 1.255 | Hull City attack 1.174 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.156. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 45 games and Hull City's last 91.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 28% | Draw 24% | Hull City 49%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.63 | Draw 4.19 | Hull City 2.06. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 46 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 28% | Draw 24% | Hull City 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Plymouth 1.23 / Hull City 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.894 / def 1.255 | Hull City attack 1.174 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Hull City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Hull City xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Hull City kick off?
Plymouth vs Hull City kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Hull City?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Plymouth vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Hull City part of?
Plymouth vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 28% chance of winning, Hull City a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Plymouth and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.89) and Hull City's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 45 games and Hull City's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
28%
3.63
24%
4.19
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.93
1.70
Hull City xG
3.63
28%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
5%
19.96
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.70 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 91 games, going 43W 20D 28L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.41 PPG from 91 outings (33W 29D 29L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.64 PPG, Hull City on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 29W 6D 10L across their last 45 home games, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 45 away games (16W 14D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.31 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Hull City in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 43W 20D 28L in their last 91 games (1.64 PPG), while Hull City have gone 33W 29D 29L in their last 91 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Hull City away?
Plymouth's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.07 PPG; Hull City away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Hull City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 1, Hull City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Hull City 2-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 49%, Hull City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 58% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hull City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Plymouth's recent matches and 60% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Plymouth's matches and 58% of Hull City's.
Do Plymouth and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Plymouth's recent matches and 67% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Hull City 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.70 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Hull City attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 28% | Draw 24% | Hull City 49%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hull City's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.64 PPG, Hull City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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