Middlesbrough 3-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Riverside Stadium plays host to Middlesbrough versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Middlesbrough have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Riverside Stadium.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Middlesbrough's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of QPR's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Middlesbrough 0W, QPR 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Middlesbrough — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
QPR — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 54% versus QPR 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 49% | QPR 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.63 xG and QPR 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.226 / defence 0.758 | QPR attack 0.816 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.136. Middlesbrough's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 78 Middlesbrough games / 78 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 59% | Draw 25% | QPR 15%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Middlesbrough (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
QPR lead the H2H ledger, but Middlesbrough carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 40% | QPR 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 59% | Draw 25% | QPR 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Middlesbrough 1.63 / QPR 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.226 / def 0.758 | QPR attack 0.816 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.70
QPR xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs QPR kick off?
Middlesbrough vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs QPR?
Middlesbrough 3 - 1 QPR.
Where is Middlesbrough vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs QPR part of?
Middlesbrough vs QPR is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 59% chance of winning, QPR a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Middlesbrough and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and QPR?
Record (3 meetings): Middlesbrough 0W | Draws 1 | QPR 2W.
What form are Middlesbrough and QPR in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. QPR (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Middlesbrough's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.82x) against Middlesbrough's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.94
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.33
0.70
QPR xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
33.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.70 for QPR, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough's recent record stands at 36W 16D 26L from 78 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 31L across 78 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.35 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Middlesbrough have managed 22W 7D 9L from 38 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 13W 8D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and QPR in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 36W 16D 26L in their last 78 games (1.59 PPG), while QPR have gone 29W 18D 31L in their last 78 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or QPR away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.92 PPG; QPR away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Middlesbrough go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 0-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 6, QPR have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when QPR 0-4 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and QPR?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 50%, QPR 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Middlesbrough) and 53% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; QPR in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 55% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 53% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and QPR tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, QPR in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat QPR 3-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.63 xG and QPR 0.70 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against QPR attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 59% | Draw 25% | QPR 15%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 49%, QPR 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.59 PPG, QPR 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.