Leeds 2-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elland Road plays host to Leeds versus Plymouth in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leeds have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elland Road this season.
Plymouth (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Leeds. A 1.30 PPG lead over Plymouth (2.20 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Leeds register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Plymouth in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Leeds half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leeds 62% and Plymouth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 62% | Plymouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.83 xG and Plymouth 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.179 / defence 0.916 | Plymouth attack 0.787 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.224. Data: 15 Leeds games / 15 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Leeds 70% | Plymouth 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Leeds 1.83 / Plymouth 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.179 / def 0.916 | Plymouth attack 0.787 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Leeds (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Plymouth kick off?
Leeds vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Plymouth?
Leeds 2 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Leeds vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Plymouth part of?
Leeds vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 60% chance of winning, Plymouth a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Leeds and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leeds and Plymouth in?
Leeds (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Plymouth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Leeds's attack at 1.18x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.79x) against Leeds's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.43
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.71
0.88
Plymouth xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
34.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Leeds and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Leeds and 0.88 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leeds's recent record stands at 15W 14D 24L from 53 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 12L across 53 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leeds heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Leeds have managed 9W 10D 7L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 9W 10D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Attack vs Defence
Leeds are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.77 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Plymouth away?
Leeds's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.42 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Leeds or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Leeds go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leeds won 3-0 on 2 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Leeds
0
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Leeds have won 4, Plymouth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Plymouth 1-2 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Plymouth?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leeds see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 65%, Plymouth 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leeds) and 54% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Leeds's games and 62% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Leeds's matches and 54% of Plymouth's.
Do Leeds and Plymouth tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leeds edge out Plymouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Plymouth 2-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.83 xG and Plymouth 0.88 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Plymouth attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 18%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 62%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Leeds winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.