Hull City 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Sunderland meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Hull City, 1.30 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 38% versus Sunderland 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 40% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.822 / defence 1.380 | Sunderland attack 1.070 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.147. Data: 68 Hull City games / 22 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 23% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 53%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Sunderland 1.89. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Sunderland 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 23% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Hull City 1.02 / Sunderland 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.822 / def 1.380 | Sunderland attack 1.070 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Sunderland xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sunderland kick off?
Hull City vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 December 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Hull City 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Hull City vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sunderland part of?
Hull City vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 23% chance of winning, Sunderland a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hull City and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Sunderland in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.07x) against Hull City's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 68/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
23%
4.41
24%
4.15
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.71
1.69
Sunderland xG
4.41
23%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
23.97
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hull City and 1.69 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 13D 34L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.69 PPG from 68 outings (32W 19D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 11W 4D 18L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.45 points per game from 33 outings (12W 12D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.60 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 21W 13D 34L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 32W 19D 17L in their last 68 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.12 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Hull City or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sunderland in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 42%, Sunderland 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 58% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 30%; Hull City have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hull City's recent matches and 54% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 58% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sunderland tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.69 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.82 / defence 1.38 against Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 23% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 53%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 40%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.