Fulham 4-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Championship, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fulham have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, QPR have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Fulham, 1.70 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, QPR in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 73% and QPR 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fulham 64% | QPR 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.73 xG and QPR 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.213 / defence 1.086 | QPR attack 1.200 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.135. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Fulham games / 11 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 26% | QPR 32%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | QPR 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | QPR 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 26% | QPR 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Fulham 1.73 / QPR 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.213 / def 1.086 | QPR attack 1.200 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Fulham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.48
QPR xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs QPR kick off?
Fulham vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs QPR?
Fulham 4 - 1 QPR.
Where is Fulham vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs QPR part of?
Fulham vs QPR is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 42% chance of winning, QPR a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fulham and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and QPR in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. QPR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.21) and QPR's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.20x) against Fulham's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.87
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.21
1.48
QPR xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
6%
17.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fulham and 1.48 for QPR, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 6W 2D 3L from 11 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 3L across 11 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Fulham against 1.64 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 2.00 scored and 1.45 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; QPR in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and QPR in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while QPR have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or QPR away?
Fulham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.00 PPG; QPR away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and QPR?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, QPR have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when QPR 0-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and QPR?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Fulham, 80% for QPR — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fulham and 100% for QPR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fulham's games and 80% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fulham's matches and 100% of QPR's.
Do Fulham and QPR tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, QPR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 4-1 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat QPR 4-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.73 xG and QPR 1.48 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.21 / defence 1.09 against QPR attack 1.20 / defence 1.34, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 42% | Draw 26% | QPR 32%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 64%, QPR 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.82 PPG, QPR 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.