Fulham 0-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet in-form Nottingham Forest provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 39 as Fulham welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Nottingham Forest's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fulham, 0 for Nottingham Forest and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 4–0 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 55% versus Nottingham Forest 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 55% | Nottingham Forest 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.34 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.451 / defence 1.146 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.959 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.128. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Fulham games / 42 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Nottingham Forest 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nottingham Forest (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 60% | Nottingham Forest 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Fulham 1.34 / Nottingham Forest 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.451 / def 1.146 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.959 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Nottingham Forest xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Fulham 0 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 39% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fulham and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.45x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.78
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Nottingham Forest xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fulham and 1.24 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Fulham have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 26W 8D 8L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 21W 10D 11L from 42 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 2.05 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 9W 6D 5L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.57 scored and 0.88 conceded. Fulham's scoring rate against Nottingham Forest's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Nottingham Forest in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 26W 8D 8L in their last 42 games (2.05 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Fulham's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.10 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Fulham or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Nottingham Forest runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fulham
1
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 7, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Nottingham Forest 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Fulham) and 35% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 50% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Fulham's recent games and 35% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.34 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.45 / defence 1.15 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 39% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 34%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Nottingham Forest 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 2.05 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.