Fulham 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Derby travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 November 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 1L across 9 games at Craven Cottage this term (2.44 PPG). They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Fulham are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Derby in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 56% versus Derby 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 67% | Derby 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.80 xG and Derby 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.569 / defence 0.955 | Derby attack 0.628 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.091. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.569 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Fulham games / 18 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 63% | Draw 25% | Derby 11%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 56% | Derby 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 63% | Draw 25% | Derby 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Fulham 1.80 / Derby 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.569 / def 0.955 | Derby attack 0.628 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Fulham (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Derby xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Derby kick off?
Fulham vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 24 November 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Derby?
Fulham 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Fulham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Derby part of?
Fulham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 63% chance of winning, Derby a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fulham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Derby in?
Fulham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.57) and Derby's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
63%
1.58
25%
3.98
11%
8.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.46
0.66
Derby xG
1.58
63%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
8.74
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
2%
52.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Fulham and 0.66 for Derby, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fulham come into this having played 18 games, going 13W 2D 3L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (4W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fulham's home form reads 7W 1D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.89 scored and 1.00 conceded. Fulham's scoring rate against Derby's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Derby in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 13W 2D 3L in their last 18 games (2.28 PPG), while Derby have gone 4W 9D 5L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Derby away?
Fulham's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.44 PPG; Derby away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Fulham or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Derby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Derby runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fulham
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 0, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Derby 2-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Derby 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 22% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Derby in 33%; Derby in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fulham's recent matches and 44% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Fulham's recent games and 22% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Derby tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Derby in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fulham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Derby finished level at 0-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.80 xG and Derby 0.66 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.57 / defence 0.95 against Derby attack 0.63 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 63% | Draw 25% | Derby 11%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 67%, Derby 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.