Fulham 2-0 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Blackburn travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Fulham have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 5W 3D 2L at Craven Cottage — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Craven Cottage this season.
Blackburn — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Blackburn have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fulham are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fulham have won 1, Blackburn 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 7–0 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Blackburn trading profile (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 58% versus Blackburn 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 58% | Blackburn 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.36 xG and Blackburn 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.450 / defence 1.175 | Blackburn attack 0.622 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.071. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Fulham games / 34 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 22%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Blackburn 4.55. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Blackburn 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Fulham 1.36 / Blackburn 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.450 / def 1.175 | Blackburn attack 0.622 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Fulham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Blackburn xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Blackburn kick off?
Fulham vs Blackburn kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Blackburn?
Fulham 2 - 0 Blackburn.
Where is Fulham vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Blackburn part of?
Fulham vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 51% chance of winning, Blackburn a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fulham and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Blackburn?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 0W.
What form are Fulham and Blackburn in?
Fulham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.45) and Blackburn's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.58
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.14
0.78
Blackburn xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fulham and 0.78 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 21W 7D 5L from 33 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 9L across 33 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Blackburn heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 11W 3D 3L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Fulham's scoring rate against Blackburn's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Blackburn in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 21W 7D 5L in their last 33 games (2.12 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Blackburn away?
Fulham's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.12 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Fulham or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Blackburn in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Blackburn?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Blackburn have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Fulham 2-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Blackburn?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 59%, Blackburn 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Fulham) and 24% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Blackburn in 35%; Blackburn in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fulham's recent matches and 41% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Fulham's recent games and 24% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Blackburn tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Blackburn 2-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.36 xG and Blackburn 0.78 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.45 / defence 1.18 against Blackburn attack 0.62 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 51% | Draw 28% | Blackburn 22%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 58%, Blackburn 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Blackburn's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.