Derby 0-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Stoke City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stoke City make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stoke City's overall Championship record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stoke City have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Stoke City are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Derby 3W, Stoke City 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Stoke City — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 64% versus Stoke City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Stoke City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.33 xG and Stoke City 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.812 / defence 1.157 | Stoke City attack 0.940 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.320. Data: 56 Derby games / 56 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 40%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Stoke City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Stoke City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Derby 1.33 / Stoke City 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.812 / def 1.157 | Stoke City attack 0.940 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Stoke City xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Stoke City kick off?
Derby vs Stoke City kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby 0 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Derby vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Stoke City part of?
Derby vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning, Stoke City a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derby and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
Record (6 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 1 | Stoke City 2W.
What form are Derby and Stoke City in?
Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Stoke City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.81x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.94x) against Derby's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.90
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Derby xG
Total xG
2.77
1.44
Stoke City xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Derby and 1.44 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 12D 23L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.27 PPG from 56 outings (20W 11D 25L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Derby against 1.27 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 20W 11D 25L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Stoke City away?
Derby's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.36 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
3
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Stoke City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Derby 0-1 Stoke City.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 64%, Stoke City 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Derby) and 39% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Derby's recent matches and 39% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Derby's recent games and 39% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Stoke City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stoke City edge out Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.33 xG and Stoke City 1.44 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Stoke City attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 40%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 54%, Stoke City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stoke City's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.34 PPG, Stoke City 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.