Derby 0-0 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derby at 45%, yet in-form Oxford United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derby vs Oxford United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Oxford United travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby in Championship (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Derby — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Derby's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Oxford United have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Oxford United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Oxford United are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Derby, 1 for Oxford United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2024, ended Derby 1–1 Oxford United — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Oxford United in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Oxford United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Oxford United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.13 xG and Oxford United 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.741 / defence 1.083 | Oxford United attack 0.641 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.049. Derby's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Oxford United's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Derby's last 31 games and Oxford United's last 31.
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 23%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.24 | Draw 3.08 | Oxford United 4.35. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Oxford United (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Oxford United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Oxford United 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Oxford United | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Derby 1.13 / Oxford United 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.741 / def 1.083 | Oxford United attack 0.641 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Oxford United xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Oxford United FAQs
What time does Derby vs Oxford United kick off?
Derby vs Oxford United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Oxford United?
Derby 0 - 0 Oxford United.
Where is Derby vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Oxford United part of?
Derby vs Oxford United is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Oxford United a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Derby and Oxford United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Derby vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.74x the league average against Oxford United's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oxford United's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 31 games and Oxford United's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.24
32%
3.08
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Derby xG
Total xG
1.86
0.73
Oxford United xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Oxford United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Derby and 0.73 for Oxford United, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, Derby have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 35W 15D 27L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Oxford United's form line: 31W 22D 24L from 77 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.56 PPG, Oxford United on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.82 PPG from their last 38 home games (21W 6D 11L).
On the road, Oxford United have gone 12W 10D 16L from their last 38 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Oxford United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Oxford United Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 15D 27L in their last 77 games (1.56 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 31W 22D 24L in their last 77 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Oxford United away?
Derby's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.82 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Derby or Oxford United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oxford United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Oxford United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derby
2
Draws
2
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Oxford United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Oxford United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 4, Oxford United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Oxford United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Derby 1-0 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Oxford United?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 47%, Oxford United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 50% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Oxford United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Oxford United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Oxford United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Derby's recent matches and 53% of Oxford United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Oxford United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Oxford United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Derby's recent matches and 79% of Oxford United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Derby and Oxford United drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.13 xG and Oxford United 0.73 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Oxford United attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 23%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Oxford United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oxford United's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.56 PPG, Oxford United 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 32
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →