Derby 0-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cardiff make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff's overall Championship record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cardiff's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Derby, 1.10 for Cardiff — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Derby have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cardiff in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Derby 0W, Cardiff 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cardiff — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Cardiff 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Cardiff 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.51 xG and Cardiff 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.002 / defence 1.097 | Cardiff attack 0.822 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.151. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Derby games / 45 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 26%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Cardiff 3.85. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Derby 1.51 / Cardiff 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.002 / def 1.097 | Cardiff attack 0.822 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cardiff xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cardiff kick off?
Derby vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Derby 0 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Derby vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cardiff part of?
Derby vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, Cardiff a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derby and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are Derby and Cardiff in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.82x) against Derby's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.88
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Derby xG
Total xG
2.55
1.04
Cardiff xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Derby and 1.04 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 14W 13D 18L from 45 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 23L across 45 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Derby against 1.11 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 11W 7D 4L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cardiff's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.09 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cardiff away?
Derby's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.82 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Derby or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cardiff in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
3
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cardiff?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Cardiff have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cardiff 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 59%, Cardiff 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Derby) and 68% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cardiff in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Derby's games and 64% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Derby's matches and 68% of Cardiff's.
Do Derby and Cardiff tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.51 xG and Cardiff 1.04 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 1.39, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 48% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Cardiff 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.22 PPG, Cardiff 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.