Coventry 0-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Coventry Building Society Arena plays host to Coventry versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Wednesday 16 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Coventry's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coventry at The Coventry Building Society Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Hull City (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Championship this season, Hull City have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Coventry, 0.90 for Hull City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coventry lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Coventry winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Coventry goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 56% versus Hull City 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coventry 47% | Hull City 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 0.97 xG and Hull City 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 0.998 / defence 1.083 | Hull City attack 0.738 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.059. Data: 36 Coventry games / 37 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 37% | Draw 33% | Hull City 30%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Hull City 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 50% | Hull City 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 37% | Draw 33% | Hull City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Coventry 0.97 / Hull City 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 0.998 / def 1.083 | Hull City attack 0.738 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Coventry (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hull City xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Hull City kick off?
Coventry vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 16 March 2022 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Hull City?
Coventry 0 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Coventry vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Hull City part of?
Coventry vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 37% chance of winning, Hull City a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Coventry and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Coventry 1W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Coventry and Hull City in?
Coventry (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Hull City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coventry's attack at 1.00x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.74x) against Coventry's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.07
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Coventry xG
Total xG
1.82
0.85
Hull City xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.7 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Coventry and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Coventry and 0.85 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Coventry have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 15W 9D 12L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 9W 8D 19L from 36 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Coventry are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Coventry have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.72 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 25%.
Last 36 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Hull City in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Hull City have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Hull City away?
Coventry's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.72 PPG; Hull City away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Coventry or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hull City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Coventry
5
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Coventry have won 2, Hull City have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Hull City 0-0 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 56%, Hull City 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Coventry and 17% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hull City in 39%; Hull City in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Coventry's recent matches and 22% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coventry's recent games and 17% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Hull City tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coventry.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Coventry 0-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 0.97 xG and Hull City 0.85 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coventry fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Hull City attack 0.74 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 37% | Draw 33% | Hull City 30%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 47%, Hull City 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.