Cardiff vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cardiff, 0.60 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cardiff have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derby in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cardiff 3W, Derby 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Derby — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 60% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 56% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 2.24 xG and Derby 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.274 / defence 1.108 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cardiff games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 58% | Draw 20% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Derby 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 58% | Draw 20% | Derby 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Cardiff 2.24 / Derby 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.274 / def 1.108 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derby xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Derby kick off?
Cardiff vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Derby part of?
Cardiff vs Derby is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 58% chance of winning, Derby a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Cardiff and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Cardiff 3W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Derby in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (1.27) and Derby's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Cardiff's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 11/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
58%
1.72
20%
5.01
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.56
1.32
Derby xG
1.72
58%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
2%
42.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.32 for Derby, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 29W 15D 13L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.21 PPG from 28 outings (19W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Cardiff are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Derby in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Derby away?
Cardiff's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.21 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Cardiff
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Derby?
From 5 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Derby?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 57%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Cardiff and 64% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cardiff's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cardiff's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Cardiff and Derby tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.