Blackpool 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackpool vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Bloomfield Road to face Blackpool in Championship, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Blackpool have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool at Bloomfield Road this season: 4W 0D 4L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
QPR (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Blackpool. A 0.60 PPG lead over QPR (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Blackpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackpool 50% versus QPR 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackpool 44% | QPR 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackpool 1.13 xG and QPR 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackpool attack 0.729 / defence 1.038 | QPR attack 1.055 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.137. Blackpool's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Blackpool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Blackpool games / 16 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackpool 33% | Draw 28% | QPR 39%. Fair-value odds: Blackpool 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Blackpool (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackpool 12% | QPR 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackpool vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bloomfield Road • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackpool 33% | Draw 28% | QPR 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Blackpool 1.13 / QPR 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Blackpool attack 0.729 / def 1.038 | QPR attack 1.055 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: QPR (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Blackpool xG
Expected Goals
1.25
QPR xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackpool vs QPR kick off?
Blackpool vs QPR kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Bloomfield Road.
What was the final score in Blackpool vs QPR?
Blackpool 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is Blackpool vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Bloomfield Road.
What competition is Blackpool vs QPR part of?
Blackpool vs QPR is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackpool vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Blackpool a 33% chance of winning, QPR a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Blackpool and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Blackpool vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Blackpool and QPR in?
Blackpool (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. QPR (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackpool's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.05x) against Blackpool's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.55
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Blackpool xG
Total xG
2.38
1.25
QPR xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackpool vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Blackpool and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Blackpool and 1.25 for QPR, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackpool vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackpool's recent record stands at 7W 3D 6L from 16 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 5L across 16 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Blackpool against 1.56 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Blackpool have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Blackpool are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.69 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackpool
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackpool and QPR in coming into this match?
Blackpool have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while QPR have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackpool at home or QPR away?
Blackpool's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackpool at home: 1.50 PPG; QPR away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Blackpool or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackpool have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, QPR in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Blackpool have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 6-1 on 14 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackpool have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Blackpool
1
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackpool have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackpool and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2023, when Blackpool 6-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Blackpool and QPR?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackpool see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackpool 12%, QPR 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Blackpool) and 88% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackpool keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Blackpool have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackpool home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackpool play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Blackpool's recent matches and 75% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackpool vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Blackpool's matches and 88% of QPR's.
Do Blackpool and QPR tend to score early?
Blackpool have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, QPR in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackpool and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 17, as Blackpool and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.13 xG and QPR 1.25 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against QPR attack 1.05 / defence 1.45, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackpool 33% | Draw 28% | QPR 39%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 44%, QPR 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackpool's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.50 PPG, QPR 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.