Birmingham 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Birmingham vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 23 as Birmingham welcome Derby to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Birmingham have posted 6W 3D 1L at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Birmingham are significantly better at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park than their overall form suggests.
Derby — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Birmingham 1.40 PPG, Derby 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Birmingham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Birmingham, 0 for Derby and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Birmingham in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 52% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 47% | Derby 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.62 xG and Derby 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.288 / defence 0.985 | Derby attack 1.196 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.174. Birmingham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Birmingham games / 68 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 43% | Draw 25% | Derby 32%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 43% | Draw 25% | Derby 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Birmingham 1.62 / Derby 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.288 / def 0.985 | Derby attack 1.196 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Derby xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Derby kick off?
Birmingham vs Derby kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 26 December 2025 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Derby?
Birmingham 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Birmingham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What competition is Birmingham vs Derby part of?
Birmingham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 43% chance of winning, Derby a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Birmingham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Birmingham 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Birmingham and Derby in?
Birmingham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Birmingham's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.01
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Birmingham xG
Total xG
3.01
1.38
Derby xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.38 for Derby, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Birmingham's recent record stands at 42W 14D 12L from 68 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 29L across 68 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Birmingham by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 25W 7D 1L from 33 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — Birmingham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derby's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Birmingham are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.16 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Derby in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 42W 14D 12L in their last 68 games (2.06 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 18D 29L in their last 68 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Derby away?
Birmingham's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 2.48 PPG; Derby away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Birmingham or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Derby in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Birmingham's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Birmingham
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Derby 1-0 Birmingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 46%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Birmingham) and 54% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Derby in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Birmingham's recent matches and 64% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Birmingham's recent games and 54% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Derby tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Derby in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Birmingham and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 23, as Birmingham and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.62 xG and Derby 1.38 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Derby attack 1.20 / defence 0.90, drawn from 22/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 43% | Draw 25% | Derby 32%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 47%, Derby 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.