Zlin 0-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Slavia Praha travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.99 xG and Slavia Praha 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Slavia Praha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.010. Data: 0 Zlin games / 0 Slavia Praha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zlin 34% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Slavia Praha 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 34% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Zlin 0.99 / Slavia Praha 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Slavia Praha attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Slavia Praha xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Zlin 0 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slavia Praha part of?
Zlin vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 34% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Zlin and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Slavia Praha in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.85) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.22
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Zlin xG
Total xG
1.97
0.99
Slavia Praha xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Zlin and 0.99 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Pre-Season
Slavia Praha
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Slavia Praha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Slavia Praha won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Zlin
2
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 0.99 xG and Slavia Praha 0.99 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Slavia Praha attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 34% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Slavia Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.