Zlin 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zlin face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Slavia Praha travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin at Stadion Letna this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Slavia Praha's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Slavia Praha have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Zlin.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Slavia Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 48% versus Slavia Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 48% | Slavia Praha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.24 xG and Slavia Praha 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.081 / defence 1.128 | Slavia Praha attack 1.346 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.084. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Zlin games / 55 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 28% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Slavia Praha 2.17. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 50% | Slavia Praha 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 28% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Zlin 1.24 / Slavia Praha 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.081 / def 1.128 | Slavia Praha attack 1.346 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Slavia Praha xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Zlin 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Slavia Praha part of?
Zlin vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 28% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zlin and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
Record (7 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 2 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Zlin and Slavia Praha in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.08) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
28%
3.62
26%
3.78
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.88
1.65
Slavia Praha xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
5%
18.82
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Zlin and 1.65 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 0L across 25 games — 2.44 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 7W 5D 0L across 12 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.20 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 18W 7D 0L in their last 25 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.33 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Zlin or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Slavia Praha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Slavia Praha won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Zlin
2
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 58%, Slavia Praha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zlin) and 33% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zlin's games and 67% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Zlin's recent games and 33% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Zlin 1-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.24 xG and Slavia Praha 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Slavia Praha attack 1.35 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 28% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 46%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 48%, Slavia Praha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.