Zlin 0-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 1.00 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sigma Olomouc in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Zlin have won 0, Sigma Olomouc 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 65% versus Sigma Olomouc 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 65% | Sigma Olomouc 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.93 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.219 / defence 1.194 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.924 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.254. Data: 56 Zlin games / 56 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 49% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Sigma Olomouc 3.70. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Sigma Olomouc 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 49% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Zlin 1.93 / Sigma Olomouc 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.219 / def 1.194 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.924 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Zlin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Zlin 0 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 49% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Zlin and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (3 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.22x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.15
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.31
1.38
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
4%
25.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Zlin and 1.38 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 13W 19D 28L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 20W 21D 19L from 60 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.97 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.42 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 13W 19D 28L in their last 60 games (0.97 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Zlin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.33 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Zlin or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
2
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 67%, Sigma Olomouc 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Zlin and 47% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 43% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Zlin's matches and 47% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Zlin and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.93 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 49% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 65%, Sigma Olomouc 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.97 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.