Zlin 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 39%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Karviná travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Czech Liga appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Karviná are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Zlin, 2 for Karviná and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Karviná in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 56% and Karviná 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 38% | Karviná 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.68 xG and Karviná 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.832 / defence 1.125 | Karviná attack 1.099 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.289. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Zlin games / 46 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 39% | Draw 26% | Karviná 35%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Karviná 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 75% | Karviná 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 39% | Draw 26% | Karviná 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Zlin 1.68 / Karviná 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.832 / def 1.125 | Karviná attack 1.099 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Zlin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Karviná xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Karviná kick off?
Zlin vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Zlin 1 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Zlin vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Karviná part of?
Zlin vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 39% chance of winning, Karviná a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Zlin and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
Record (7 meetings): Zlin 3W | Draws 2 | Karviná 2W.
What form are Zlin and Karviná in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Karviná (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.83x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.79
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.27
1.59
Karviná xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Zlin and 1.59 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 5D 5L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 8W 1D 7L from 16 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.44 PPG, Karviná on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 4W 0D 4L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.75 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 81%.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Karviná in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Karviná have gone 8W 1D 7L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Karviná away?
Karviná's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.25 PPG; Karviná away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zlin
2
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 3, Karviná have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 75%, Karviná at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Zlin and 100% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Zlin's games and 88% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Zlin's matches and 100% of Karviná's.
Do Zlin and Karviná tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Karviná in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Zlin 1-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.68 xG and Karviná 1.59 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Karviná attack 1.10 / defence 1.50, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 39% | Draw 26% | Karviná 35%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 38%, Karviná 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.44 PPG, Karviná 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.