Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host FK Jablonec at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.78 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.78 — Zbrojovka Brno are significantly better at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.78 PPG (Zbrojovka Brno) versus 1.70 (FK Jablonec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
FK Jablonec have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Zbrojovka Brno's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 0–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 44% versus FK Jablonec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zbrojovka Brno 44% | FK Jablonec 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.43 xG and FK Jablonec 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.054 / defence 1.018 | FK Jablonec attack 0.824 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.245. Data: 9 Zbrojovka Brno games / 39 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 26%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Zbrojovka Brno 60% | FK Jablonec 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.43 / FK Jablonec 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.054 / def 1.018 | FK Jablonec attack 0.824 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FK Jablonec xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Zbrojovka Brno 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 44% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 0W | Draws 0 | FK Jablonec 3W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating (1.05) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.34
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.48
1.04
FK Jablonec xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.04 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 1D 3L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.78 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Zbrojovka Brno are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or FK Jablonec away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 2.25 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zbrojovka Brno or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zbrojovka Brno have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Zbrojovka Brno's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec?
From 4 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zbrojovka Brno see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 50%, FK Jablonec 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Zbrojovka Brno and 0% for FK Jablonec.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 25% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent games and 0% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Zbrojovka Brno 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.43 xG and FK Jablonec 1.04 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zbrojovka Brno fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against FK Jablonec attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 26%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 44%, FK Jablonec 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.78 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.