Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host Bohemians 1905 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's home record at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska: 4W 0D 2L from 6 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Zbrojovka Brno) versus 1.50 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Bohemians 1905 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 46% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 46% | Bohemians 1905 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.945 / defence 1.039 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.966 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Data: 11 Zbrojovka Brno games / 40 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zbrojovka Brno at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zbrojovka Brno 50% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.48 / Bohemians 1905 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.945 / def 1.039 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.966 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Zbrojovka Brno 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
Record (2 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.65
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.67
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.19 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 1D 4L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.73 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians 1905 in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 2.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Zbrojovka Brno or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zbrojovka Brno have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zbrojovka Brno's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
2
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zbrojovka Brno see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 50%, Bohemians 1905 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Zbrojovka Brno and 83% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 67% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 83% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, Regular Season - 12, as Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 46%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.73 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.