Teplice 4-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Teplice at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 5L this season (7 games, 0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.20 PPG (Teplice) versus 0.60 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 56% versus Zlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 69% | Zlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.99 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.643 / defence 1.221 | Zlin attack 0.606 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.281. Teplice's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Teplice games / 16 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 31% | Zlin 33%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Zlin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 57% | Zlin 43%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 31% | Zlin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Teplice 0.99 / Zlin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.643 / def 1.221 | Zlin attack 0.606 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Teplice (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zlin xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 4 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 35% chance of winning, Zlin a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
Teplice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.18
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.94
0.95
Zlin xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Teplice and 0.95 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 1W 2D 13L from 16 games, a 0.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zlin by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Teplice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 2D 13L in their last 16 games (0.31 PPG), while Zlin have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.57 PPG; Zlin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Teplice or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Zlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Zlin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 57%, Zlin 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Teplice) and 57% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 29% of games; Zlin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Teplice's recent matches and 43% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Teplice's matches and 57% of Zlin's.
Do Teplice and Zlin tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zlin in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Teplice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Zlin 4-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.99 xG and Zlin 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.64 / defence 1.22 against Zlin attack 0.61 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 35% | Draw 31% | Zlin 33%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 69%, Zlin 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 0.94 PPG against 0.31. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.