Teplice 2-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.50 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Teplice 0W, Sparta Praha 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 45% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 60% | Sparta Praha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.09 xG and Sparta Praha 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.930 / defence 0.955 | Sparta Praha attack 1.097 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.396. Data: 37 Teplice games / 37 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 26% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Praha 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 40% | Sparta Praha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 26% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Teplice 1.09 / Sparta Praha 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.930 / def 0.955 | Sparta Praha attack 1.097 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sparta Praha xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Teplice 2 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 26% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Teplice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 2W.
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.10x) against Teplice's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
26%
3.84
30%
3.29
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.55
1.46
Sparta Praha xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.53
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Teplice and 1.46 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 8D 23L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 25W 10D 7L from 42 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 10W 5D 5L from 20 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.95 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 8D 23L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.10 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Teplice
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 40%, Sparta Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 60% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Teplice's matches and 60% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Teplice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 8, as Teplice and Sparta Praha drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.09 xG and Sparta Praha 1.46 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 26% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 44%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 60%, Sparta Praha 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.