Teplice 1-3 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet in-form Slovácko provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 5W 3D 2L at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slovácko — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Teplice, 1 for Slovácko and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Slovácko 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Slovácko 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.17 xG and Slovácko 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.867 / defence 1.056 | Slovácko attack 0.785 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.254. Data: 56 Teplice games / 56 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 31%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Slovácko 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovácko (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 70% | Slovácko 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Teplice 1.17 / Slovácko 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.867 / def 1.056 | Slovácko attack 0.785 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Slovácko xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 1 - 3 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Slovácko a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.16
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Slovácko xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Teplice and 1.04 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 12D 33L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.75 PPG from 61 outings (32W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 11W 7D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.46 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 12D 33L in their last 61 games (0.98 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 32W 11D 18L in their last 61 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.29 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slovácko in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Slovácko 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Teplice) and 64% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 61% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Teplice's matches and 64% of Slovácko's.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.17 xG and Slovácko 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slovácko outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Slovácko attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 31%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 64%, Slovácko 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.