Teplice vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Teplice at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Pardubice encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Teplice against 1.40 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Pardubice — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Teplice a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Teplice — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).

Pardubice — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 51% and Pardubice 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 38% | Pardubice 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.25 xG and Pardubice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.943 / defence 0.978 | Pardubice attack 0.892 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Teplice games / 43 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 37% | Draw 33% | Pardubice 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Pardubice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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