Teplice 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 6L this season (9 games, 0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 53% and Bohemians 1905 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 63% | Bohemians 1905 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.94 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.835 / defence 1.177 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.731 / defence 1.745. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.307. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.745 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Teplice games / 19 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 56% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 1905 22%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Bohemians 1905 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 56% | Bohemians 1905 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 56% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 1905 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Teplice 1.94 / Bohemians 1905 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.835 / def 1.177 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.731 / def 1.745 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Teplice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bohemians 1905 xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Teplice 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 56% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Teplice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.83x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.73x) against Teplice's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.55
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.06
1.12
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
3%
31.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Teplice and 1.12 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 3W 2D 14L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 5W 3D 11L from 19 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Teplice against 0.95 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.42 scored and 2.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 3W 2D 14L in their last 19 games (0.58 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Teplice's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.78 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 56%, Bohemians 1905 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Teplice and 89% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Teplice's games and 67% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Teplice's matches and 89% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Teplice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.94 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.12 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.73 / defence 1.75, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 56% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 1905 22%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 63%, Bohemians 1905 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.58 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.