Teplice 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Teplice's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Teplice's games and 70% of Bohemians 1905's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Teplice 1–1 Bohemians 1905 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Bohemians 1905 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 47% | Bohemians 1905 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Teplice surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bohemians 1905 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bohemians 1905 surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.17 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.958 / defence 1.326 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.021 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.279. Teplice's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 41 games and Bohemians 1905's last 41.
Result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 48%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.24 | Draw 3.54 | Bohemians 1905 2.08. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Teplice 1.17 / Bohemians 1905 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.958 / def 1.326 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.021 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Bohemians 1905 xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Teplice 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 24% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Teplice and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.96x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.02x) against Teplice's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 41 games and Bohemians 1905's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
24%
4.24
28%
3.54
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.90
1.73
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
23.96
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Teplice and 1.73 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 10D 21L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 11W 16D 18L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Teplice against 1.09 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 22 home games (6W 8D 8L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 9D 8L from their last 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 10D 21L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Teplice's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.18 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won Teplice 3-0 Bohemians 1905 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Bohemians 1905 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Teplice's games and 64% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Teplice's recent matches and 68% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Teplice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.17 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.73 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 24% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 48%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 47%, Bohemians 1905 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.