Sparta Praha 1-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav meet at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena: 5W 1D 0L from 6 Czech Liga appearances (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.30 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 54% versus Mlada Boleslav 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 54% | Mlada Boleslav 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.37 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 0.977 / defence 0.824 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.698 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.295. Data: 11 Sparta Praha games / 11 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 52% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 20%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 5.00. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 33% | Mlada Boleslav 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 52% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Sparta Praha 1.37 / Mlada Boleslav 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 0.977 / def 0.824 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.698 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Mlada Boleslav xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sparta Praha 1 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 52% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.70x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.58
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.11
0.74
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.74 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Praha's recent record stands at 8W 2D 1L from 11 games, a 2.36 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 5L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Praha have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.82 scored and 1.64 conceded. Mlada Boleslav's attacking output running into Sparta Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 64%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 games (2.36 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.60 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-5 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 20%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Sparta Praha and 40% for Mlada Boleslav.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 40% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 1-0 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.37 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.74 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 52% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 20%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 54%, Mlada Boleslav 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.