Slovan Liberec 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Teplice — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.50 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Teplice have the stronger record — 5 wins to Slovan Liberec's 0, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Slovan Liberec 1–2 Teplice — a Teplice win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Teplice have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 53% versus Teplice 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 51% | Teplice 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovan Liberec surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.31 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.031 / defence 1.021 | Teplice attack 0.938 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.200. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 47 games and Teplice's last 47.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 31% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.60 | Draw 3.24 | Teplice 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 31% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.31 / Teplice 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.031 / def 1.021 | Teplice attack 0.938 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 3 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 39% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.94x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 47 games and Teplice's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
39%
2.60
31%
3.24
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Teplice xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.15 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 15D 19L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.10 PPG from 49 outings (14W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.10 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 11W 7D 6L across their last 24 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Slovan Liberec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 15W 15D 19L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.67 PPG; Teplice away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 3-0 Teplice on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
6
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Teplice have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 46%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slovan Liberec) and 54% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 54% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 46% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Teplice 3-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.31 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 31% | Teplice 31%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.22 PPG, Teplice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.