Slovan Liberec 2-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Slovan Liberec take on Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion u Nisy, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sigma Olomouc arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Slovan Liberec, 2 for Sigma Olomouc and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 45% versus Sigma Olomouc 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 39% | Sigma Olomouc 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.798 / defence 0.805 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.874 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.454. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Slovan Liberec games / 49 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 33%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Sigma Olomouc 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 40% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Slovan Liberec 0.99 / Sigma Olomouc 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.798 / def 0.805 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.874 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sigma Olomouc xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 32% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (3 meetings): Slovan Liberec 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.87x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
35%
2.89
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.02
1.02
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.02 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 11D 23L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 17W 17D 17L from 51 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.33 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.33 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.40 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 36%, Sigma Olomouc 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Slovan Liberec and 40% for Sigma Olomouc.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 44% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 36% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 40% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 20, as Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.99 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.02 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 / defence 0.81 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 39%, Sigma Olomouc 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.22 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.